You can find a lot of informations about Value Betting nowadays over the internet, free informations, but 15 years ago very few informations existed , now we have tons of softwares and odd scanners available, and because of this, many bettors are using these strategies. Back in the time, we searched for arbitrage opportunities and value bets manually, now it’s so easy, that with a little patience (and some knowledge) almost every bettor can make a living out of it.
Let’s Start With… What is a Value Bet?
Playing (betting on) all those value bets found, will be highly profitable for bettors , in the long ron, after 100’s or 1000’s of bet placed. In this tutorial we will explain why, and how its so profitable in many sports , event in horse racing (in fact, in horse racing you can find the most valuable bets if you have the proper knowledge).
Let’s have some examples, for better understanding of value bets.
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1. Example 1 – The Easiest Real Life Example – The Coin Toss
A coin throw have only 2 outcomes, heads or tail, so, how its lands on the ground have 50% chances to land on heads, 50% on tail. Right ? Right ! If we transform this in odds , this means we have odd 2 for outcome HEAD, and odd 2 on outcome TAILS. In the long run, if you bet a FIXED stake on every time, on outcome HEAD, we will brake even. Of course, not after 5 throws, but after 1.000.Â
Now , Imagine that someone will give you to place the same bet , with 1 unit stake (fixed stake), on a 2.2 odd , you’d be in a huge profit, after 1.000 throws. Normally, in a perfect world, you’d won 50% of the times, so 500 times. Now, because you did bet on 2.2 odd, instead of odd 2, you would had a profit of 500 x 0.2 odd, and this means 100 units. 100 units profit , when you placed 1.000 times 1 unit .. this means a 10% profit , and no risk.Â
2. Example 2 – The Football Example
Let’s say we have 2 teams , Real Madrid and Barcelona. In past 12 games between them in last few years, we’d seen 4 games with Under 3.5 , and 8 games with Over 3.5 in those games. So, we have 66.6% of the games with more than 3 goals. If we transform this in odds, this means we should have odd 1.5 for Over 3.5 goals market. If you check the bookmakers offers, and you find that majority of bookies offers odds around 1.5x , and then you find a bookmaker that offer a 1.7 odd for this betting line.. now that’s a Value Bet !
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3. Example 3 – The Horse Racing Example
How Do Value Bets Appear ?
There are several reasons that provoke appearance of Value Bets.Â
1. Bookmakers are not Gods.Â
Yes, they invest MILLIONS of dollars into research, statistics, dedicated teams that analyse those statistics and news. But they are NOT perfect. They need to keep track with thousands of fixtures every day from tons of sports. Every fixture have a lot of betting markets, sometimes hundreds. So , they working volume is way too big , in order to avoid making mistakes. So, sometimes, if you can find those mistakes that can lead to overpriced odds, and bet them BEFORE the bookmaker repair their own mistakes, you have an edge over the bookmaker, because you took that odd , at higher price.
2. Fast moving markets, and too much money incoming on an outcome of a fixture or betting market.Â
For example, 1 million dollars coming in a very short period of time on a betting market outcome will shorten the price from a bookmaker, but the others don’t modify their odd lines so fast. As I wrote in another article, in smaller leagues, some markets can be influenced with few thousands dollars, especially in second or 3rd league of a country, or U21, U19 fixtures. For example, many punters hunt for opportunities of value bets in BTTS NO or YES in such leagues, because bookmakers often don’t have good statistics in such leagues.Â
But there is a trick :
Those betting markets can be easy influenced if in a short period of time, a few thousands dollars are put on YES BTTS, at an odd of 2.4 , lets say. In few minutes, to bookmaker will give odd 2.2 for example, but you still be able to find the 2.4 odd on another bookmaker.Â
Playing (betting on) all those value bets found, will be highly profitable for bettors , in the long ron, after 100’s or 1000’s of bet placed. In this tutorial we will explain why, and how its so profitable in many sports , event in horse racing (in fact, in horse racing you can find the most valuable bets if you have the proper knowledge).
3. Adjustments To News.
As I mention in another article, bookmakers add a specific event in their offer with several days before the event start, and big games they add them with 7-10 days before. Thir system , data analyse team, are giving odds based of statistics, odds than will be modify each day, by the market and punters, that are placing bets on an outcome, or another.
BUT, there are a lot of cases when a lot of news can appear in this period , and market reacts based on them. Like I said, Bookmakers are not gods, and mistakes can appear, or delays. Sometimes it will be enough to be half an hour from the time when a team announce a player being injured, to punters to take advantage of that news, and place a bet against that team winning. Not only once we did place a bet on the other team winning at odd 3 , after such news , and after 1 hour to discovered that that odd was dropped to 2.5 . That.. was a Value Bet, plain and simple ! And it was won, by the way.
How To Finds Value Bets in Sport Betting?
As I mention in the beginning, in the past we did Arbitrage Betting and Value Betting by manually checking every game and odds, we used different bookmakers that we know that they are in competition with each other and have their own teams that are calculating and deciding the odds. But overtime, programmers have invented different was , like softwares that do the job for you. So, the main ways fo find value bets are :
1. Manually searching for Value Bets.Â
This is not for everybody, and the reasons are simple : You need to have good knowledge about a specific sport, not to say .. you need to be an expert in reading the news and understanding how a missing player can affect an outcome of an event. Or to understand the changing of weather, rain or wind , can affect who’s winning that event, ot not ? This is time consuming, and you need to know to transform accurate , the chances YOU BELIEVE that an outcome have.. into the odds.Â
This method of finding Value Bets is still used in Horse Racing, but you need to do a lot of research before races to understand if a horse like a race surface or another, if the change of the jockey in good or not. If the start position in the stable in helping or not the horse in that race, etc etc. But, if you manage to cover all those in your knowledge, the results in finding Value Bets can be real astonishing, and you can beat the bookmakers.
2. Using Free Value Betting Softwares
Value Betting Softwares have appeared in the last decade, and they are quite a few very good in doing their job. They usually scan the odds at different bookmakers , and make an odd comparison to find who bookmaker have the best odd on a specific outcome (because it’s no point to bet on a winner offered at Bookmaker1 , on odd 1.45 .. if you find another that offer you odd 1.6, right ?
However, Using the FREE version of those Value Betting Software you will have some limits, you cannot select your list of bookmakers, or you are limited to see only some of the value bets (which are smaller in percentage) and also you will have an delay in seeing those Value bets.
You need to be fast …Â
And I cannot say you how important is to be QUICK in placing bets after you found a value bet, because usually.. that odd will drop FAST. Remember.. you are not the only one searching and betting on Value Bets ! Thousands of professional bettors are doing that, and you only need to imagine that everyone is betting an average of 100 dollars on that specific bet, and you can realise that bookmakers have a great sum of money coming as bets on that outcome, so they will drop that odd very quick.
3. Using Premium Betting Softwares.
Therefore, I strongly suggest using the Premium Versions of those softwares. Ofcourse, they may not be cheap, but hey.. you cannot win money, without spending some. And don’t even imagine that someone will give you a service access to a software for 10 usd per month, when you can make thousands per month with that software. We can recommend some of them, because in the past years we did try a lot of them for the arbitrage or value bets (some of those website can also offer you access to arbitrage odds scanners , and value bets)
Value Betting – Everyone can make it with some Research and with the right tools.
That graph presented is only for last 10 days, using one of our Strategies (Over 2.5 goals) and using one of our favourites value betting scanners. Ofcourse, we didn’t bet all the games that respective scanner presented us being value bets. We had choosen only 74 (from about 200 games this last 10 days), based on our own experience, a second look on their stats, and depending of how much percentage of the value was.Â
So, as you can see bellow , from those 74 games, 3 are still pending, 36 were won (48.65%) and 38 were lost (51,35 %), but usually the odds were over 2 , so that’s why, even that we lost more games that we won, we had an 11.81 units profit, which means ROI (return on investment) being 11.81% . I need to mention that 11.81 ROI it is maybe an average. We had strategies that gave us 3 or 4 procent, and strategies that bring us as much as 18% in some months. But , yearly, we’ve noticed that average is around 10% on our strategies.
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So.. what this means in money wise ?
As you maybe noticed, I always recommend fixed stakes (1 unit being 1% of your bankroll) and we don’t recommend another staking strategies to beginners. Also, being a long time bettor, in strategies that WE KNOW that are working and make us profit, we use 100 euros per unit, but again, we don’t recommend using stakes that high if you are TESTING strategies, or if your bankroll in under 10.000 euros. Bankroll is the total amount of money that you have into ALL your bookmakers account.
So, we placed 74 bets x 100 euros, this means we bet a total of 7.400 euros in these 10 days , and our profit was 11.81 units x 100 euros, so pure profit being 1.181 euros in 10 days, with only one strategy (Over 2.5 goals) strategy. Thank you value betting !
Pros and Cons of Value Betting StrategyÂ
Let’s start with the Pros:
1) Some say that Value Betting is more profitable than Arbitrage betting. We don’t consider this way, because by arbing , you cover both outcomes of a betting market, so you make a small profit guaranteed, because it’s a sure bet. But still, in arbitrage betting you use minimum 2 bookmakers to place an arbitrage bet, this means more money involved, more work, and more risk to have account limited by those bookmakers.
2) Personally we combine this value betting strategy with bonuses, so we win in different levels. This will be explained in another article.
3) In Value Betting you place only 1 bet, and if you are a beginner, this strategy is more recommended than arbitrage. In Arbitrage betting you need to be fast, usually arbitrage opportunities disappear in 1-2 minutes, in LIVE arbitrage betting you need to be under 1 minutes fast. In Value Betting, a Value Bet can still be there in 10 minutes, maybe more, and the odd usually drop gradually (from 2.5 , it will be 2.4, then 2.35, or 2.2 , like a ladder, they don’t drop from 2.5 to 2 , in a blink of an eye)
4) The winnings depends of the unit size and total bets placed in a period of time.Â
Now, let’s see the Cons :
1) In arbitrage betting, you make a small amount with every arb you place, so the profits are smooth, but smaller . In Value betting, on the other hand, if you get a losing streak, your winning graph will look like that presented in above screenshot, on 10 days, with ups and downs. When the winning streak is happening, its very nice and easy, but when your losing streak is longer, you need a good management of money, and not to panic. The feelings are harder to control. That’s why I recommend beginners to start with smaller stakes, until they are sure their Value Betting strategy is working.
2) Requires a lot of discipline and constancy. Keep record of your bets. I keep record of almost ALL my bets from the last 15 years in excel files, with profit / loss reports on days / months / years. With records of Profit / Loss on each strategy that I’ve tested. This means extra time spent. For each bet that I place, several minutes research, few seconds to place it, and maximum 1 minute to place a record of it.
3) Emotion Control – After a losing streak, everytime comes a winning streak. Don’t force your luck, don’t increase stake size if you are loosing , and trying to recover looses. STICK TO THE STAKING PLAN ! – VERY IMPORTANT !
4) Sometimes you get limited by soft bookmakers (gubbed accounts) , where you cannot place your desired stake. They limit account for value bettors, so be prepared to open another account with another bookie . Anyways, in Value / Arbitrage betting you need to have in the same time, account with a lot of bookmakers, not only 1-2-3.Â
5) It is time consuming. I am doing betting for a living, for last 15 years and this website is done in my free time. Researching the bets, placing value bets that appear along the day, its time consuming, cannot be done in 10 minutes / day. If you don’t have enough time to allocate for this strategy, stick to the betting tips, thay take only a few minutes per day, to place them.
Secret informations based on our 15 years of experience. How to improve your earnings from Value Betting Strategy.
In the next chapter I will provide some tips and tricks, ideas and our experience detailed, about what to do and what NOT to do, in order to maximize your income from value betting Strategy. Also, to avoid mistakes that we’ve done in the past, when testing new strategies. This.. will help you avoid losing money. But, this is for MEMBERS ONLY.
Don’t worry , registration it is FREE, and it will remain FREE for some time.
