We wrote a detailed explanation article about Value Betting in general, You can find it here , and I recommend you to read it, because in this article I will focus in explaining only how to apply this strategy of Finding Value Bets on UK Horse Racing.
Value Bet – short explanation and an example
A Value Bet is when you, as a bettor, discover a better odd on a market offered by a bookmaker, than the true expected outcome. Basically, Value Betting is a strategy in sports betting (but also in gambling, poker, etc) where the odds offered to players are higher than the true odds for a particular outcome.
Playing (betting on) all those value bets found, will be highly profitable for bettors , in the long run, after 100’s or 1000’s of bet placed. In this tutorial we will explain why, and how its so profitable in many sports, even in horse racing (in fact, in horse racing you can find the most valuable bets if you have the proper knowledge).
Horse Racing Value Betting Example :
In Horse racing, over the years we’ve noticed the biggest value bets, but there is no software to help you. You can find more than a few horses daily where bookmakers are showing overpriced odds for them. You need to MANUALLY check the horses history and past races stats, but don’t be surprised if you find horses with odd around 10, when bookmakers add the race (usually with 1-2 days before the race) , and to see how that odd drop to even 4 or 5, before the race starts. That is a HUGE drop in odd, and a huge value bet, if you got to bet it when was odd 10. Same applies in Greyhound races, but I personally, I never got into greyhound betting. But if you have knowledge about greyhounds… go for it !
How Do Value Bets Appear in Horse Racing?
There are several reasons that provoke appearance of Horse Racing Value Bets.
1. Bookmakers are not Gods.
Yes, they invest MILLIONS of dollars into research, statistics, dedicated teams that analyse those statistics and news. But they are NOT perfect. They need to keep track with thousands of fixtures every day from tons of sports. Every fixture have a lot of betting markets, sometimes hundreds. So , they working volume is way too big , in order to avoid making mistakes. So, sometimes, if you can find those mistakes that can lead to overpriced odds, and bet them BEFORE the bookmaker repair their own mistakes, you have an edge over the bookmaker, because you took that odd , at higher price.
2. In Horse Racing – Bookmakers tend to give better odds to favourites, but overprice the underdogs.
They do this because majority of punters make they selection bets on their favourite horse, or a selection from the best 2-3 horses . Because a lot of money comes in bets on those favourites.. their odds drop , and guess what .. the odds of underdogs will raise.
But there is the trick :
Sometimes those odds of the underdogs raise so much, in fact, when you look at the race, you’re 1st though it will be : “Why this horse have the odd of 12 ? He should be around 5 or 6” . Of course, you will not ask yourself that question until you get some experience in “reading” a horse form . I will give you some guidelines in this article .
Playing (betting on) all those horse value bets when found, will be highly profitable for bettors , in the long run, after 100’s or 1000’s of bet placed. In this tutorial we will explain why, and how its so profitable in many sports , event in horse racing (in fact, in horse racing you can find the most valuable bets if you have the proper knowledge).
How To Finds Value Bets in Horse Racing?
Option 1 – Manually searching for Value Bets
Skip this step if you don’t wish or you don’t have time for learning.
This is not for everybody, and the reasons are simple : You need to have good knowledge about horse racing. If you have patience to learn it, you can apply what you had learn , also in Horse Scalping Strategy.
In Horse Racing every detail about the race is important, and you need to cover all of them in your learning process. If you are a total beginner, I suggest to start looking for explanations on google about type of races, type of races, type of surfaces, the type and the classes of races in UK or Ireland Horse Racing.
You need to do a lot of research before races to understand if a horse like a race surface or another, if the change of the jockey in good or not. If the start position in the stable in helping or not the horse in that race, etc etc. But, if you manage to cover all those in your knowledge, the results in finding Value Bets can be real astonishing, and you can beat the bookmakers.
Finding value bets in Horse Racing is also time consuming, but with enough experience, you’ll take less and less time to discover horses that are overpriced by bookmakers.
What website do you use for Horse stats and race informations ?
There are quite a few website that give real comprehensive stats for horses , jockeys, race courses for UK and Irish races. We didn’t try them all, but we have one favourite : Timeform website. The have very good statistics for horses, about surfaces, about jockeys , basically all you need to know. You have even more information for a paid membership, and you can watch the races live. But, for the start, for learning how things go, you don’t need an account.
I will not explain in detail about every feature of that website, but the most important information about the race and horses you can find them there, like in this screenshot :
The most important about any horse when looking for his racing history, it is represented by his FORM , and this is presented in above picture above like this : 19/216531- . Those are the places that that horse occupied in his last races. Last digit represent last race, and he won it.
TIP 1 : But it’s not enough to know that he won last race. What type and what Class the race was it ? It was handicapped horse ? How much were the weights he was handicapped ? How many horses were running in that race ? Because its important to know if he won a race with another 2 horses, or a race with 12 runners, right ? And how he won it ? Was it close ? All those informations you can get if you go on the horse name with your mouse, just hover over the name, and you get quick informations, click the name and you open a new page with A LOT of informations :
Looks like “Local Hero” won his last race on 18 of December 2024, and he had races against other 11 horses, he won with 1.5 lenghts of a horse (Btn tab) , so a decent advantage. If you want to know what CLASS was the race, just hover the mouse over the date (18 december) and you see the name of the race and the Class. In this case, the class of the won Kempton Race Class was 3 .. and the current race class is also 3.
Why the Class is maybe the most important , in my opinion, in finding horse racing value bets ? Because DAILY i see races in class 4 (for example) , with horses that have won only races in weeker classes (like 5 or even 6) , that are given like favourites, and horses that have had won in class 4 , or got a very close 2nd place in a class 4 race, and they are considered underdogs. Usually, their odds are a value bet. When you find those horses .. you got yourself a value bet, and you have 2 choices after you bet on it. To let it in-play, like a normal bet.. or you can cash-out that bet after that horse will drop in price, because 90% of them WILL DROP in price , until the race will start ! You can also use the horse scalping strategy , when you find such horses.
TIP 2: Besides Timeform website, and besides dedicated websites with horse racing informations , I noticed that Bet365 website give all the informations about the horses, about the races and surfaces, including the race’s classes.
For this, you don’t even need to be logged in , so you don’t need an account. Also, you can see in last screenshot, Bruce Banner have bad results in Class 4 , but he managed a win on 15th of January on a 6-Class Handicap race, at Kempton, on 1 mile and 4 furlongs distance, over a 9 horses race. You also can see the HUGE variances , in 24 hours, from 5.5 odd, to 3.5 current odd, with 30 minutes before the race. You rarely see such variations of odds in other sports, so that’s why in Horse Racing you can find the biggest Value Bets.
Let me show you how big those variances can be :
This bet was placed with 20 hours before the race, with odd 34. BSP with yellow, means Betfair Starting Price, that’s the most accurate starting price, this means the odd at the start of the race, at Betfair Exchange. The fact that it was WON on odd 34, it is not important. It is important to notice the HUGE drop of odd, from odd 34, to odd 8.15 , in about 24 hours ! This was because this horse was OVERPRICED by the bookmakers, and market as Underdog with absolutely no chance of winning , and one of the biggest Horse Racing Value Bet we seen in last week.
Option 2 – Paid subscriptions for Experts that hunt for value bets in UK racing
Yes, there are people in this world, experts in finding those value bets way better than me. They know when soft bookmakers add the races into their offers. and analyze the races searching for value bets.
Then, they post their findings into their account, and you pay them decent amounts of money to follow their bets and take advantage of their value bets. Ofcourse, you need to be fast . You’ll receive an email whenever the bets are posted, with the horse and the recommended odd, and the bookmaker which have the higher odd. Usually, the odds drop, in 10-20 minutes, because guess what ? You’re not the only one who follow that value betting tipster.
The tips can be for the race winner, but mostly, the bets are E/W (Each Way). In Horse betting, this means that your bet is split in half (one half for the winner of the race, and one half if your horse in placed on places 2-3-4 , depending of the race size – how many horses are in the race)
In able to place an Each Way bet, you need a soft bookmaker , like Bet365, WIlliamHill, Coral, Unibet, and a lot more big bookmakers, or 22Bet , Megapari, and many more.
TIP 1 : Open as many accounts you can at all bookmakers that you find that they have UK horse racing, even if you’ll notice Bet365 have the best odds, a lot of times you will find better odds (better value bets) on other bookmakers.
TIP 2 : Also open an account with Betting Exchange Bookmaker and learn to use that Exchange. That is used in Horse Scalping Strategy, but sometimes you will find good value bets there, mostly on winner of the race.
Ok then, lets see some examples, let’s see some stats of those experts !
1) My favourite horse value tipster : UNDERDOG Racing Tips
– Over 5 years old tipster , in the system, so, a long history of winnings. Even if his profits are smaller than others, but the fact that you can see his stats of over 5 years of bets, it’s a very strong point that help him.
– In the last 2 years, only 1 month he got negative results ! His win rate is 23%, and his ROI, a record 41.5%
– 39 Euros / month
Note : the shown results are based on a bet of 20 euros (wee kept the same staking strategy : 1 unit being 1% of bankroll, in our case.. 1 unit is 20 Euros)
2) My 2nd preferred horse value tipster : The Profit Rocket
– Almost 2 years in the system, but I never saw results like his. In may 2024 , when the system reported over 10.600 british pounds profit for him, based on his recommended odds, we managed to secure a total of 9.200 euros profit. An this, for only 29 euros subscription, it is a real bargain.
– In the last 19 months , only 1 month he got negative results, with win rate at 24.5% , and a ROI of 32.3%
– 29 Euros / month
Note : the shown results are based on a bet of 20 euros (wee kept the same staking strategy : 1 unit being 1% of bankroll, in our case.. 1 unit is 20 Euros)
3) My 3nd preferred horse tipster : The King Of Horses :
– Almost 2 years in the system, 26% Win rate, and a ROI of 19.74 – great stats , one of the best in Horse Racing Value Betting !
– In the last 23 months , only 1 month he got with a negative result
– 39 Euros / month
Note : the shown results are based on a bet of 20 euros (wee kept the same staking strategy : 1 unit being 1% of bankroll, in our case.. 1 unit is 20 Euros)
I present only those 3 , which are the best in my opinion, but over the time I had subscriptions with a lot more of them. The most I had subscriptions with 7 tipsters, but then its harder to follow all their bets.
TIP 3 : Why choose more then one tipster ? In the Beginning you can start following only one tipster , but you will realise it’s better to have at least 2 or 3 . Why ? Because if one of them have a bad period, a losing streak, you’ll have the other ones as backup.
Remember ! In Horse Racing Value Betting, you bet on UNDERDOGS, on higher odds. SO.. the losing streaks can cover a few days. You can place bets on 10-20 horses and loose, in order to win one and for some, such losing streaks can be stressful. Always remember our staking suggesting : bet 1 unit, 1 unit being 1% of total bankroll.
How can I contact those Horse Experts?
All those horse racing value bets finders you can find them on one platform, which include also many other sports, and tipsters. It’s named TIPSTRR, and it’s one of the most respected platforms that connects tipsters and bettors, and do all the nasty things for this :
– emails you when your favourite tipster posted a new value bet
– record all for both sides : results of the races, statistics, graphs.
Note 1: Some tipsters presented on that platform are FREE , but they don’t always have the best results, but you can check their stats anyway.
Note 2 : A lot of tipsters have sometimes offers, like First month is 80%off , or even Free. Don’t be afraid to take those opportunities, and check those tipsters out !
Note 3 : You realize (I hope) that you will never get the exact amount that system will calculate as profit for each tipster. This is because you don’t always get odds like those he recommended. A lot of times they announce the odd 34 , but maybe you’ll get only odd 30, because you cannot place the bet in the same time as the tipster.
So, because of that, we have TIP 4 : Be fast ! You will receive an email notification every time your followed tipsters are posting a value bet. The odd will drop fast, so make sure you’re placing the bet pretty quick.
So, all you need is to open first a TIPSTRR account , and then to view and choose your desired tipsters to follow.
Pros and Cons of Horse Racing Value Betting Strategy
Let’s start with the Pros:
1) One of the MOST PROFITABLE strategy I ever seen over the years.
2) Personally I combine this strategy with Horse Scalping Strategy or with Horse Trading Strategy. Usually we double check the stats of the horses given by those tipsters, and if we are 100% sure that those horses will DROP A LOT in odds, we bet them double. 1 bet we let until the end, as a value bet, and 1 bet we cash it out, after the odds will drop !. So , this way, usually the profit after cashout , will cover ALL , or a big part of the bet will let until the end, transformit it into a no-risk bet.
3) The biggest bookmakers will not limit your accounts by placing 10-20 euros bet per underdog horses. Things will change maybe if you stake hundreds of euros for a high odd horse. But then again, if you do this, this means your bankroll should be 100x times bigger , for example, if you decide to stake 100 euros per horse bet, your bankroll should be minimum 10.000 euros. However, I would not recommend that for beginners or if you don’t have the basic knowledge in horse racing !
Now, let’s see the Cons :
1) You need access to soft bookmakers like Bet365 , 22bet, Williamhill, Unibet that have UK Horse racing in their offer. Sharp bookie, like Pinnacle won’t help you. Having a Betfair Exchange account will not help very much, differs from Horse Scalping Strategy, where having access to Betfair Exchange is a must !
2) The risk that bookmakers will limit your betting accounts are very small, but… they exist if you stake large amounts of money.
3) Emotion Control – After a losing streak, everytime comes a winning streak. Don’t force your luck, don’t increase bet size if you are losing , and trying to recover loses. STICK TO THE STAKING PLAN ! – VERY IMPORTANT !
5) If you are searching for Horse Racing Value Bets manually… It is time consuming, and requires a lot of knowledge. If you place bets placed by tipsters, you need to be pretty quick! Odds will drop, usually if you don’t place it in first 10-20 minutes after notification, odds will drop very fast.
