Expected Value Betting Calculator
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What is Expected Value Betting ?
Expected value, also known as EV in betting, is the estimated profit a bettor should make from a bet given the sportsbook’s odds. Positive EV bets (+EV bets) indicate the sportsbook has undervalued their odds, and the bettor will likely profit from these over time. Negative EV bets suggest the opposite.
Knowing the expected value of bets can play a key part in an effective betting strategy. Though a positive EV does not guarantee a profit every time, should a bettor consistently wager on +EV bets in the long term, there is a strong probability that their net profit will be positive over time (wins will outweigh losses).
We explained more about expected value in out Value Betting Strategy Tutorial, and we recommend to use this calculator every time when you think you found a value betting opportunity!
How to Use The Expected Value Betting Calculator
Input Fields :
- Odds Format: Choose decimal (e.g., 2.00), fractional (e.g., 1/1), or American (e.g., +100).
- Bookmaker Odds: Enter the odds offered by the sportsbook.
- Your Probability: Estimate the true chance of the event happening (e.g., 55% for a coin you think is biased).
- Stake: Enter the amount you plan to bet.
Results Explained
- Expected Value (EV): Average profit/loss per bet. Positive = good, negative = bad.
- Expected Profit: Potential profit if EV is positive.
- Implied Probability: The bookmaker’s estimated chance of the outcome.
- Edge: Your advantage over the bookmaker’s odds (positive = value bet).
- Recommendation: “BET” (green) if EV is positive, “AVOID” (red) otherwise.
Example: If the bookmaker offers 2.00 odds (50% implied chance), but you believe the true probability is 55%, the calculator will show a positive EV and recommend a bet.
Use this tool to make smarter, data-driven decisions and maximize long-term profits!
