Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid – Will It Rain With Goals Again?

Recent Form & Momentum

Deportivo Alavés enter this fixture riding a cautiously optimistic wave after a crucial 1-0 win away to high-flying Girona. That result was not only vital for their survival hopes—it also underscored their recent uptick in form, having lost just once in their last five La Liga games (W2, D2, L1).

Despite their generally poor home record (just 16 points from 14 games), Alavés have demonstrated an ability to punch above their weight against stronger sides, drawing against top-seven teams three times at home this season.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, are in a bit of a tailspin following back-to-back defeats—a shock 2-1 home loss to Valencia in La Liga and a demoralizing 3-0 hammering by Arsenal in the Champions League quarter-final first leg. With their European hopes on life support and a title race heating up, Carlo Ancelotti is likely to rotate heavily in this match, prioritizing freshness for the crucial return leg versus Arsenal. That opens the door for unpredictability—and possibly, goals at both ends.

Key Trends Supporting Both Teams to Score

Alavés’ Survival Urgency: Every game is a must-win for Eduardo Coudet’s side, and their recent form reflects this mentality. They’ve scored in four of their last five La Liga matches, including goals against Girona, Villarreal, and Las Palmas. At home, their output has been inconsistent, but Carlos Vicente has scored three of his four league goals this season at Mendizorroza, often striking first.

Madrid’s Defensive Fragility: Real Madrid have conceded in five of their last six matches across all competitions, including three goals to Arsenal and two to Valencia.

The absence of key defensive figures like Carvajal, Mendy, Militao, and possibly Alaba weakens their backline significantly. With rotation expected and a less experienced defense likely starting (including Tchouameni at center-back and youngster Fran Garcia), vulnerabilities could be exploited.

Madrid’s Offensive Firepower Remains: Even with stars like Mbappé, Vinicius, and Bellingham likely rested, Madrid are still stacked in attack. Arda Güler, Brahim Díaz, Endrick, and Rodrygo will relish the opportunity to impress and maintain scoring pressure. Los Blancos have scored in 13 of their 15 away league games this season, and their first-half away record (HT: W7, D6, L2) is the best in the division.

Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head Data:

Real Madrid have won their last six league games against Alavés, often with high-scoring margins. However, a rotated squad and Alavés’ desperation could bring a more open affair. Notably, Madrid’s last two trips to struggling away fixtures (Celta Vigo, Villarreal) saw both teams find the net.

Alaves and Real Madrid Team News & Tactical Dynamics

Alavés are without suspended goalkeeper Antonio Sivera, which could present defensive instability with Jesus Owono stepping in. Missing midfield regulars like Jon Guridi will hurt their control in transitions, but Vicente and Kike García remain dangerous going forward—especially against a makeshift defense.

Real Madrid are expected to rest key players, giving starts to younger or fringe players who’ll want to prove themselves. This attacking group—featuring Endrick, Rodrygo, Brahim Díaz, and Güler—is more than capable of breaking down any backline, but a less experienced defense could struggle with Alavés’ direct play.

Deportivo Alaves vs Real Madrid Final Verdict

This is a classic case of a clash where both teams are motivated for very different reasons: Alavés are fighting for survival, and Real Madrid are managing minutes while chasing titles. With Real likely fielding a rotated squad and Alavés pushing to take advantage of that, we should expect both sides to have opportunities—and take them.

Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes